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Recessions and rumors of recessions
The Fed is putting this strong recovery in peril
 • 
Taylor Shiroff

January 2022

The Fed, the future, and flexibility
The Fed has to figure out how to assert flexibility without sounding so scary
 • 
Taylor Shiroff
Why and when to use quantitative easing
It's generally just pricey forward guidance, but QE has a time and place
 • 
Taylor Shiroff
Reserves, what are they good for?
It's 2022 and we're still saying banks lend reserves?
 • 
Taylor Shiroff
10
Credibility goes both ways
The Fed needs credibility not just as an inflation fighter but as a recession-fighter, too
 • 
Taylor Shiroff
2
Why is investment insensitive to interest rates?
Plenty of evidence suggests that investment doesn't react much to interest rates. How could this be?
 • 
Taylor Shiroff
3

December 2021

What does a faster taper mean?
A sooner end to quantitative easing need not get in the way of the recovery—unless the Fed lets it
 • 
Taylor Shiroff
Tightening is more than tapering
The tightening cycle is well underway, even as rates are yet unchanged
 • 
Taylor Shiroff

November 2021

Why We Shouldn't Doom Over Labor Force Participation
Today’s Low and Stationary Labor Force Participation Rate Is Not a Sign of a Structural Shift
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Taylor Shiroff
In Brief: Last Week's Data Releases
The recovery continues, but we're not there yet
 • 
Taylor Shiroff

October 2021

Is The Fed Monetizing the Debt?
Contrary to popular narratives, it doesn't seem like it.
 • 
Taylor Shiroff

September 2021

On Forecasting Inflation
What do the median CPI index and older consumers have in common? They are bad at forecasting inflation!
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Taylor Shiroff
© 2024 Taylor Shiroff
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